城镇化、工业化对农业全要素生产率增长的影响研究——来自重庆37个县(区)面板数据的证据

文章基于2000—2016年重庆37个县（区）面板数据，使用序列DEA方法测算了重庆农业全要素生产率变动，在此基础上探讨了重庆农业全要素生产率增长的时间演变，并从理论和实证层面系统考察了城镇化和工业化对农业全要素生产率增长的影响。结果表明：首先，2000—2016年间重庆市农业全要素生产率呈上升趋势，2007年后重庆市农业全要素生产率增长更为明显，并且重庆市各地区呈现出明显的空间不平衡性。其次，动态面板模型的实证结果表明城镇化对农业全要素生产率增长具有显著正向影响，工业化对农业全要素生产率增长也具有显著正向影响。最后，研究还发现基础设施、教育水平以及金融发展程度对农业全要素生产率增长均具有显著正向影响，而产业结构对农业全要素生产率增长具有显著负向影响。     

Toward an Application Guide for Safety Integrity Level Allocation in Railway Systems

The work in the article presents the development of an application guide based on feedback and comments stemming from various railway actors on their practices of SIL allocation to railway safety‐related functions. The initial generic methodology for SIL allocation has been updated to be applied to railway rolling stock safety‐related functions in order to solve the SIL concept application issues. Various actors dealing with railway SIL allocation problems are the intended target of the methodology; its principles will be summarized in this article with a focus on modifications and precisions made in order to establish a practical guide for railway safety authorities. The methodology is based on the flowchart formalism used in CSM (common safety method) European regulation. It starts with the use of quantitative safety requirements, particularly tolerable hazard rates (THR). THR apportioning rules are applied. On the one hand, the rules are related to classical logical combinations of safety‐related functions preventing hazard occurrence. On the other hand, to take into account technical conditions (last safety weak link, functional dependencies, technological complexity, etc.), specific rules implicitly used in existing practices are defined for readjusting some THR values. SIL allocation process based on apportioned and validated THR values is finally illustrated through the example of “emergency brake” subsystems. Some specific SIL allocation rules are also defined and illustrated.     

Interview schedule development for a Sequential explanatory mixed method design: complementary-alternative medicine (CAM) study among Indonesian psychologists

Sequential explanatory mixed method design is the most frequently applied in both health and social sciences literature. It is denoted by ‘QUAN → qual’ which represents the quantitative study occurs first and has greater weight in addressing the study’s aims, and the qualitative study follows to explain quantitative results. Despite the extensive use of sequential explanatory design, there are limited references to this design. Therefore, this methodological paper attempts to fill the gap by providing an illustration in developing a sequential explanatory interview schedule based on complementary-alternative medicine (CAM) study among clinical psychologists in Indonesia. The most important step to develop sequential explanatory interview schedule was the construction of aspects and questions that were immensely grounded on the most notable quantitative results. In this study, eight aspects of interview schedule were constructed after analyses of the nationwide survey. The interview schedule then piloted among participants with fairly similar characteristics to the participants in the main interviews. This process enhanced the quality of questions through feedback from participants and improved the interviewer’s skills through familiarization with questions. It is expected that this reflection report could be adopted as a practical guideline in developing interview schedule for sequential explanatory mixed method design, particularly in the field of psychology.     

Conditional design of the EWMA median chart with estimated parameters

The exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) chart is often designed assuming the process parameters are known. In practice, the parameters are rarely known and need to be estimated from Phase I samples. Different Phase I samples are used when practitioners construct their own control chart's limits, which leads to the “Phase I between-practitioners” variability in the in-control average run length (ARL) of control charts. The standard deviation of the ARL (SDARL) is a good alternative to quantify this variability in control charts. Based on the SDARL metric, the performance of the EWMA median chart with estimated parameters is investigated in this paper. Some recommendations are given based on the SDARL metric. The results show that the EWMA median chart requires a much larger amount of Phase I data in order to reduce the variation in the in-control ARL up to a reasonable level. Due to the limitation of the amount of the Phase I data, the suggested EWMA median chart is designed with the bootstrap method which provides a good balance between the in-control and out-of-control ARL values.     

Evaluating and Visualizing the Economic Impact of Commercial Districts Due to an Electric Power Network Disruption

Critical infrastructure networks enable social behavior, economic productivity, and the way of life of communities. Disruptions to these cyber–physical–social networks highlight their importance. Recent disruptions caused by natural phenomena, including Hurricanes Harvey and Irma in 2017, have particularly demonstrated the importance of functioning electric power networks. Assessing the economic impact (EI) of electricity outages after a service disruption is a challenging task, particularly when interruption costs vary by the type of electric power use (e.g., residential, commercial, industrial). In contrast with most of the literature, this work proposes an approach to spatially evaluate EIs of disruptions to particular components of the electric power network, thus enabling resilience‐based preparedness planning from economic and community perspectives. Our contribution is a mix‐method approach that combines EI evaluation, component importance analysis, and GIS visualization for decision making. We integrate geographic information systems and an economic evaluation of sporadic electric power outages to provide a tool to assist with prioritizing restoration of power in commercial areas that have the largest impact. By making use of public data describing commercial market value, gross domestic product, and electric area distribution, this article proposes a method to evaluate the EI experienced by commercial districts. A geospatial visualization is presented to observe and compare the areas that are more vulnerable in terms of EI based on the areas covered by each distribution substation. Additionally, a heat map is developed to observe the behavior of disrupted substations to determine the important component exhibiting the highest EI. The proposed resilience analytics approach is applied to analyze outages of substations in the boroughs of New York City.     

基于理想解和灰关联度的动态评价方法及其应用研究

为了对多个多属性（指标）待评价对象（方案）在多个时间点的发展状态和该时间段内的总体发展水平进行比较分析，根据理想解法和灰关联度法优缺点，提出基于理想解和灰关联度的动态评价方法。该方法基于三维数据，将欧氏距离和灰色关联度相结合，提出一种新贴近度，同时反映了位置关系和数据曲线的相似性差异，兼顾评价指标值差异程度和增长程度。最后将该方法应用于"十二五"期间省域循环经济生态效益评价，通过实例验证该方法实际应用上的有效性。     

Smoothed bootstrap bandwidth selection for nonparametric hazard rate estimation

A smoothed bootstrap method is presented for the purpose of bandwidth selection in nonparametric hazard rate estimation for iid data. In this context, two new bootstrap bandwidth selectors are established based on the exact expression of the bootstrap version of the mean integrated squared error of some approximations of the kernel hazard rate estimator. This is very useful since Monte Carlo approximation is no longer needed for the implementation of the two bootstrap selectors. A simulation study is carried out in order to show the empirical performance of the new bootstrap bandwidths and to compare them with other existing selectors. The methods are illustrated by applying them to a diabetes data set.     

将生命还给社会:传记法作为一种总体叙事方式

在田野民族志和历史编纂学中，传记法是一种重要的叙事方式。本文从分析林耀华的作品入手，将其置于20世纪20年代以来的社会学和人类学思想脉络中，并在此基础上探讨传记法在中国历史和社会研究中的潜力与可能性。本文将谱系法、个人生命史和社会生命论归纳为“传记法三角”。在（扩展）谱系法和社会结构论的基础上，生命传记法可以呈现一个或多个人的生命历史，作为大历史中的片段。不过，现象学路径有其自身的限度，不能离开对中央政权本身和总体结构的考察。在“时势”和“社会结构”的变迁过程中呈现生命传记，才不会只是个体的故事，而有希望成为一种对中国“总体”社会生活的有力叙事方式。     

基于犹豫直觉模糊语言集均值-标准差偏好距离的多属性决策研究

在犹豫直觉模糊语言集和语言尺度函数的基础上定义了均值-标准差偏好的Hamming距离，并提出了基于犹豫直觉模糊语言集距离TOPSIS和TODIM的多属性决策方法，进一步利用这两种方法对实例问题建筑商的招标方案进行排序，并讨论了偏好参数对排序结果的灵敏度分析。为验证上述方法的有效性，与已有方法对同一实例的排序结果进行了比较分析。     

嵌套并联结构两阶段DEA下科技创新效率测度与分解

目前有许多研究将两阶段DEA模型应用到科技创新活动当中，一般将创新活动分为研发和转化两个阶段，为了进一步探讨不同转移转化方式下科技成果的转化效率以获得更多的详细信息，本文拓展了传统的两阶段DEA模型，考虑了嵌套并联结构的两阶段网络DEA模型，将科技创新活动分为科技成果研发阶段和科技成果转化阶段，并将科技成果转化阶段分为内部转化和外部转化两个并联子系统。本文选取14家中科院院属单位作为被评价对象，应用加权加法分解方法计算整体效率和各阶段子效率。通过将本文模型与传统两阶段模型进行对比发现，传统模型会低估科技成果转化效率。结果表明：整体科技创新效率均值偏低，科技成果研发效率均值高于科技成果转化效率均值，科技成果转化效率仍有很大的提升空间。科技成果转化阶段中内部转化效率普遍较高但是外部转化效率普遍较低，较低的外部转化效率是导致科技成果转化效率低下的主要原因。最后，本文将所有被评价单位分为四类机构，分析提高科技创新效率的实现路径，可以通过重点突破模式和渐进突破模式来实现整体效率的提高。